Why climate action now comes down to speed, finance and cooperation
Just over a decade ago, the world was heading towards more than 4°C of warming over pre-industrial levels. Climate action since the Paris Agreement has lowered that trajectory to 2.3°C if current national commitments are fully delivered.
The United Nations has been at the centre of those efforts, pushing for stronger national plans, a faster transition to renewable energy and greater attention to adaptation, climate justice and the financing needs of developing countries.
But progress to limit warming has come as the climate itself continues to heat up. The past 11 years have been the hottest on record, with heat, drought, floods, storms and wildfires taking a growing toll on lives, economies and development.
And the world is still on course to exceed the 1.5°C threshold, at least temporarily.
Against that backdrop, the next phase of climate action is less about setting new promises than delivering on those already made, while pushing ambition much further.
What is a 1.5°C overshoot?
The 1.5°C limit refers to the average rise in global temperature above pre-industrial levels over decades. It is not determined by a single unusually hot year.
An overshoot means temperatures rise above that threshold for a period, reach a peak and, if emissions are cut deeply enough, eventually begin to fall again.
But that decline is not guaranteed, it will depend on the choices governments make now and in the years ahead.
Even if current national climate plans and additional net-zero pledges are fully implemented, warming could still peak at around 1.8°C, according to a recent UN Environment Programme report.
That difference may sound small, but it matters. The higher temperatures climb, and the longer they stay there, the greater the risks.
“Every fraction of a degree will cost lives, destroy livelihoods, deepen inequality, and push ecosystems closer to irreversible damage,” Secretary General António Guterres has warned.
Why does speed matter?
The pace of action matters because the gap between current plans and what the science requires remains very large.
Countries responsible for nearly 90 per cent of global emissions have submitted updated national climate plans, known as NDCs. But even if those plans are fully implement, they are expected to reduce emissions by only around 10 per cent by 2035.
To keep the 1.5°C goal within reach, emissions would need to fall by roughly 60 per cent over the same period.
Closing that gap means faster cuts in emissions, particularly methane and other short lived climate pollutants, while halting deforestation and accelerating the shift from fossil fuels to renewable energy.
Countries also need the infrastructure to support that shift, including modern electricity grids, more storage and greater use of clean electricity in transport, heating and industry.
Moving faster can also strengthen energy security. Three out of four people live in countries that import more fossil fuels than they export, leaving them vulnerable when conflict or other disruptions affect global supplies and prices. Renewable energy can reduce that dependence.
As Guterres has put it, “there are no embargoes on sunshine and no price spikes for wind.”
